| Before | After |
|---|---|
| The Constitution The three main UK party leaders promise “extensive new powers”, described variously as close to a “federal state”, “super devo max”, and “home rule” by leading campaigners for a No vote [More]. |
The Constitution The Smith commission excludes key powers from its final report after pressure from the UK cabinet, including the ability to vary Universal Credit. The recommendations would leave 87% of welfare spending in Scotland under Westminster control. |
| The NHS Better Together dismiss concerns that Scotland’s spending on health will be affected by UK policy decisions including commercialisation and privatisation of the NHS. These concerns are “the biggest lie of the referendum campaign” [More]. |
The NHS Audit Scotland states that up to 2019, ‘Reductions in spending at a UK level will affect the level of funding available in Scotland. The Scottish Government will need to plan for health spending within an overall reducing budget.’ |
| Oil Scotland’s oil resources are deemed to last only another 15 to 35 years.Setting up a sovereign oil wealth fund is dismissed as ‘make believe’. [More] |
Oil A ‘significant oil strike’ of 50 million barrels is announced in the central North Sea while technological advances are reported that could “add decades to the lifespan of oil reserves’.George Osborne suggests a sovereign shale gas wealth fund for Northern England. |
| Shipbuilding Better Together claims that MoD contracts to build warships in Scotland would be lost under independence because it is ‘inconceivable’ that such contracts would be awarded to a foreign country [More]. |
Shipbuilding The head of the Royal Navy admits that the MoD has considered cancelling a £4bn contract to build the new Type 26 frigates on the Clyde to get them built in France instead. |
| Immigration Ed Miliband and others on the pro-Union side claim they would have to establish border controls should an independent Scotland adopt a different immigration policy from the rest of the UK’s. |
Immigration University and business leaders call for devolved immigration powers, arguing it is 'already proved that it's possible to have a difference…bringing demographic and economic benefit to Scotland with no impact on the rest of the UK' |
Constitution
"The Vow", signed by David Cameron, Nick Cleg and Ed Miliband promised "extensive new powers" (David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg sign joint historic promise which guarantees more devolved powers for Scotland and protection of NHS if we vote No, Daily Record 16/9/14).
The former Prime Minister Gordon Brown stated "“We’re going to be, within a year or two, as close to a federal state as you can be in a country where one nation is 85 per cent of the population" (Gordon Brown backs federalism in event of No vote, The Scotsman, 15/8/14).
When asked "You are offering, effectively, the voters a chance to vote Yes or for devo max?", the Better Together campaign leader, Alistair Darling MP, answered "Yes" (interview with Jackie Bird, BBC Scotland 9/9/14).
George Galloway MP, who was nominated as one of the Better Together representatives at the largest public debate of the entire campaign, told 7,500 young voters "never mind devo max, there is Super Devo on the table now" ("The big debate", BBC Scotland 11/9/14).
The cross-party Smith Commission was convened by the UK government to recommend changes to the powers of the Scottish government following the referendum. Their recommendations were published on the 27th of November (Smith Commission report). The BBC reported that key powers were removed two days before publication after a meeting of the UK cabinet (Smith Commission 'dropped welfare proposals', BBC Scotland news website, 28/11/14).
Analysis by Nicola McEwan of Edinburgh University concludes that "Around 87% of Scottish welfare spending, including pensions, child and family benefits, tax credits and almost all working-age benefits, will remain reserved to Westminster after the new settlement is implemented."(Advocates of welfare devolution will be disappointed by Smith Report, Future of the UK and Scotland blog, Centre for Constitutional Change 27/11/14).
The NHS
The Labour MSP Neil Findlay described concerns over future NHS funding as "the biggest lie of the campaign" (Scottish NHS becomes key issue in independence as doctors debate future, The Guardian, 15/9/14).
Audit Scotland publishes a report stating that over the period to 2019, ‘Reductions in spending at a UK level will affect the level of funding available in Scotland. The Scottish Government will need to plan for health spending within an overall reducing budget.’(NHS in Scotland 2013/14 Audit Scotland)
NHS Scotland is currently funded through the Barnett formula which is based on current public expenditure in England. Following the Autumn Statement, the Office of Budget Responsibility "estimated around £23 billion of cuts by the end of the next Parliament, which would see public spending fall to 35.2% of GDP in 2019-2020, taking it below the previous post-war lows reached in 1957-58 and 1999-00". (Autumn Statement 2014: Osborne's Cuts 'Will See Public Spending Fall To Lowest Level In 80 Years'. Huffington Post, 3/12/14)
Meanwhile, privatisation of the NHS South of the border continues apace. Richard Branson’s Virgin Care Ltd proudly boasts of the ‘over 230 NHS services’ it provides, all of which are in England (http://www.virgincare.co.uk/). For example, Virgin Care Ltd has been short-listed for a £1.22bn ten-year contract to provide cancer and end of life treatment in Staffordshire and Stoke on Trent (Private companies on Staffordshire cancer contract shortlist, BBC Midlands news, 6/11/14).
‘Privatisation will always be an option for health provision’ says Simon Stevens, Chief Executive NHS England. Department of Health figures show that non-NHS healthcare providers received more than £10bn of the £100bn budget in 2013 (The Guardian, NHS boss Simon Stevens defends privatisation, 23/10/14).
Oil
Opponents of independence claim that Scotland’s oil resources will last only another 15 to 35 years (Sir Ian Wood: 15 years of oil left before independent Scotland spending cuts, Daily Telegraph, 10/8/14)
A month after the referendum, BP and GDF Suez announce ‘a significant oil strike’ in the central North Sea East of Aberdeen. The new Vorlich field could yield 50 million barrels (BP and GDF Suez discover new North Sea oil field, BBC Scotland Business, 23/10/14).
Five days after the referendum, scientists at Heriot Watt University announce a technological breakthrough in developing clean and cheap methods to maximise extraction from existing oil fields. It is claimed this could be "game changer" for the North sea and extend the life of fields by decades (New technology 'could extend lifespan of North Sea oil reserves', STV News North, 24/9/14
The Scottish government proposal to set up a sovereign wealth fund in an independent Scotland based on profits from oil is dismissed as ‘make believe’. Opponents claim that it's unwise to invest when there is a budget deficit (Better Together leaders warn that the SNP's oil cash plans won't work, Daily Record, 25/5/14)
In his Autumn statement the UK Chancellor George Osborne announces "a new Sovereign Wealth Fund for the North of England so that the shale gas resources of the North are used to invest in the future of the North". This is at a time of austerity when the annual UK budget deficit exceeds £100bn (Chancellor George Osborne's Autumn Statement 2014 speech, Chancellor George Osborne's Autumn Statement 2014 speech, 2/12/14).
Ian Bell of The Herald discusses the politics of falling oil prices [here].
Shipbuilding
Scottish Labour party leader Johan Lamont argued it would be "inconceivable [UK] contracts for defence work will be let outside the United Kingdom" to be built on the Clyde in the event of Scottish independence (Scottish independence: 'Yes' vote means loss of shipbuilding jobs, says Lamont, BBC Scotland Politics, 23/6/14)
The UK defence secretary, Michael Fallon, implied that Clyde contracts would be dependent on Scotland remaining in the UK, stating: "UK warships are only built in UK shipyards" (Scottish independence: MoD announces new £348m shipbuilding contract for Clyde, Daily Telegraph, 12/8/14)
Admiral George Zambellas, First Sea Lord and Chief of the Naval Staff of the Royal Navy revealed on the 12th of November that the Ministry of Defence was considering abandoning its promise to build the new type 26 frigates on the Clyde. The MoD "confirmed that the First Sea Lord had reflected the MoD’s current position" (MoD considers pulling £4bn Clyde frigate contract, The Scotsman, 12/11/14).
Immigration
Ed Miliband and others on the pro-Union side claimed they would have to establish border controls should an independent Scotland adopt a different immigration policy from the rest of the UK’s (We'll put guards on Scottish border: Ed Miliband reveals incendiary plan as Yes camp leads for first time in shock new pollMail on Sunday, 7/9/14).
Universities Scotland and several business organisations including the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, Institute of Directors Scotland and Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI), as well as Trades Unions, all sign an open letter calling for the devolution of some immigration powers. Professor Pete Downes argues ""Scotland has already proved that it's possible to have a difference in immigration policy, bringing demographic and economic benefit to Scotland with no impact on the rest of the UK. Fresh Talent was a big success and we're looking to the Smith Commission, and to the UK Government, to give Scotland this opportunity again" (Universities and business unite in call for Smith Commission to seize the opportunity to craft an immigration policy that meets Scotland's needs, Universities Scotland, 17/11/14)
